WTPS12 NFFN 311200
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY NUMBER B3 ISSUED FROM RSMC NADI
Jan 311418 UTC.

TROPICAL CYCLONE BINA CENTRE 995HPA CATEGORY 1 WAS LOCATED NEAR 13.1S
174.8E AT 311200 UTC. POSITION POOR BASED ON HIMAWARI-8 EIR AND
PERIPHERAL SURFACE REPORTS. CYCLONE MOVING SOUTHEAST AT ABOUT 13
KNOTS. MAXIMUM 10-MINUTE AVERAGE WINDS NEAR THE CENTRE ESTIMATED AT
ABOUT 35 KNOTS.
EXPECT WINDS ABOVE 33 KNOTS WITHIN 80 NAUTICAL MILES IN NE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 50 NAUTICAL MILES IN SE QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 30 NAUTICAL MILES IN SW QUADRANT
AND WITHIN 60 NAUTICAL MILES IN NW QUADRANT.

ORGANISATION HAS IMPROVED IN THE PAST 6 HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION
PERSISTS WITH A SMALL CURVED BAND EXTENDING TOWARDS ONTO THE SUPPOSED
LLCC FROM THE NORTHWEST. THIS IS A SMALL SYSTEM WITH VERY FAVOURABLE
CONDITIONS FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION WITH GOOD UPPER DIFFLUENT FLOW
AND STRONG UPPER DIVERGENCE WITH LOW TO MODERATE SHEARED ENVIRONMENT.
SST IS AROUND 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. BINA IS BEING STEERED SOUTHEAST BY
THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE NEAR EQUITORIAL RIDGE LOCATED TO
THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. DVORAK BASED ON 0.65 WRAP ON LOG 10
SPIRAL YILEDING DT=3.0. MET AND PT AGREE THUS, DVORAK
T3.0/3.0/D1.5/24HRS.

FORECASTS :
AT 12 HRS VALID AT 010000 UTC 16.0S 177.5E MOV AT KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE
AT 24 HRS VALID AT 011200 UTC 19.4S 179.3E MOV AT KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE

OUTLOOK :
AT 36 HRS VALID AT 020000 UTC 22.2S 179.5W MOV AT KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE
AT 48 HRS VALID AT 021200 UTC 24.7S 178.0W MOV AT KT WITH 45 KT CLOSE
TO CENTRE

THE NEXT TROPICAL DISTURBANCE ADVISORY ON TROPICAL CYCLONE BINA WILL
BE ISSUED AROUND 312000 UTC.
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